Wheat markets have pulled back, but StoneX’s Mike O’Dea says producers should not assume the story ends with weaker futures. In this episode of Wheat’s On Your Mind, O’Dea joins host Aaron Harries and Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin to examine the forces shaping hard red winter wheat—from Black Sea exports and European prices to domestic milling demand, farmer selling and Southern Plains planting conditions. One of the biggest questions is whether tightening availability in the cash market eventually strengthens basis and creates another pricing opportunity.

O’Dea explains that Russia and Ukraine continue moving wheat despite difficult Black Sea logistics, helping pressure global prices. At home, meanwhile, farmer selling has slowed considerably following earlier pricing opportunities. He expects basis and spreads to become especially important as mill demand picks up moving into the new year and spring. The group also discusses wheat quality, potential changes in planted acres and the competition between wheat and corn for Southern Plains acres. Improved moisture is good news for wheat establishment, but that same moisture could give growers more options when spring arrives. 

The discussion then expands around the globe. French wheat is finding opportunities created by Black Sea disruptions, while crop conditions in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India and Australia could alter trade flows. O’Dea also points to El Niño and historical weather patterns as something producers should watch heading toward the next growing season. For farmers making marketing decisions, his larger message is that flat futures prices are only one part of the equation. Basis, spreads, commercial buying, production costs and risk-management tools can all matter when determining whether an opportunity fits an individual operation.