The 2026 wheat crop offered producers in Kansas and Oklahoma an unwelcome lesson in just how quickly conditions can change. The crop entered winter with excellent stands in many areas after timely fall moisture and unusually warm temperatures encouraged strong growth. But that strong start came with a cost. As the crop continued growing through a warm, increasingly dry winter, it consumed soil moisture that would be desperately needed when stem elongation began in the spring. Drought, accelerated crop development, multiple freeze events, hail and eventually rain during harvest turned what had looked like a promising crop into one of the most difficult seasons the panelists could remember.
Host Aaron Harries joins K-State wheat and forages specialist Romulo Lollato Ph.D., CSIRO farming systems agronomist John Kirkegaard Ph.D. and Dave Deken to examine what producers can learn from the season. One of the clearest lessons is that resilience does not come from a single variety or management practice. Timely moisture, planting date, genetics, grazing opportunities and flexible input decisions all matter. Lollato explains why even a relatively small amount of rain at the right growth stage could have dramatically changed yield outcomes and describes research aimed at helping growers adjust nitrogen decisions according to realistic yield potential. Kirkegaard adds the Australian perspective, where early sowing, dual-purpose wheat, hay production and livestock provide farmers several ways to capture value when weather takes grain production off course.
Despite the damage, the discussion also provides reasons for optimism. Modern wheat genetics allowed some plants to recover from freeze injury through secondary tillers, while producers in both Kansas and Oklahoma continue to see value in wheat beyond the harvested grain. Wheat residue helps conserve soil moisture, adds diversity to crop rotations and can aid weed management, while grazing offers another potential revenue stream. The lesson from 2026 is not that farmers can eliminate weather risk. It is that better genetics, informed management and more flexible production systems can leave producers with more choices when the weather refuses to cooperate.
